Cotton prices are going to fall
Cotton is the third most valuable crop in the US, after corn and soybeans. Cotton prices have roughly doubled over the last year, perhaps a bit more than other staple agricultural commodities. The big difference with cotton is that it uses a much smaller share of the land base than corn, soybeans and wheat do. That makes it a lot easier to proportionately expand production when prices rise. And since it's a higher-value crop than corn, soybeans and wheat, that land expansion is going to happen, as described here in the New York Times today ... In the United States, the economics of growing cotton vary according to many factors, including regional differences and whether or not the land is irrigated. Farmers in several southern states said that at a cotton price of about $1 a pound, their profit could be roughly $200 to $500 more per acre than they could earn growing corn or wheat. For 1,000 acres planted in cotton, that means an additional $200,000 to $500,000 profit.